AFL grand final betting – Most possessions markets and bet tips

AFLgrandfinal,Hawksvs。

Eaglesmostpossessionsbettingguide

October1,201510:38pm。

byToddDavey

After23homeandawayroundsandagruellingmonthoffinalsfootball,therenowremainstwo;theteamchasingimmortalityagainsttheprecociousinterstatersreadytoprovetheybelongintheupperechelon。

TheHawthornHawksarechasingthreepremiershipsinarow–afeatthatonlyfourclubsinVFL/AFLhistoryhavebeenabletoaccomplish。

TheEaglesareplayingoffintheirfirstGrandFinalsince2006andarelookingtosecuretheirfourthpremiershipsinceenteringthecompetitionbackin1986。

ThetwoteamshavemetjustonceinGrandFinalhistorybackin1992,withtheHawkswinningby53-pointstosecuretheirfifthflaginnineyearsatWaverlyPark。

ThegamewasnotableduetothefactitisthefirstandonlytimetheAFLGrandFinalhasbeenplayedawayfromtheMCG。

Punterslookingtoplaceahead-to-headbetontheAFLgrandfinalneednotlookanyfurtherthanSportsbet,withAustralia’sfavouriteonlinebookmakerofferinganincrediblecashbackoffer。

PlaceabetoneithertheEaglesortheHawksinSaturday’sGrandFinalandifyourteamleadsatanybreakbutloses,cashback,upto$100。

Matchodds:

Oddsprovidedbywww。

sportsbet。

com。

au

Hawthorn$1。

60

WestCoast$2。

40

Lasttimetheymet

WestCoastcomprehensivelydefeatedtheHawksinthesecondqualifyingfinalatDomainStadium,dominatingthematchfromstarttofinishtorunouteventual32-pointwinners。

TheEaglesdiditwithout2014BrownlowmedallistMattPriddisandon-ballerChrisMasten,whileanankleinjurysustainedbyJackGunstonwasthebigtalkingpointoutofthecontest。

Teamnews:

Hawthorn:OnlyonechangetotheteamthatoutplayedtheDockerslastFridaynightatDomainStadiumwithJackGunstonovercominghisankleinjurytoreclaimhisspotinthe22。

BillyHartungwastheunluckymantomissout。

Hartung’somissionmeansRyanSchoenmakers–themanmanyexpectedtomakewayforGunston–retainshisspot,inamovethatHawks’coachAlistairClarksonwillbeusingtoexploitthelackofheightinWestCoast’sdefensivebacksix。

WestCoast:Eagles’coachAdamSimpsonhaselectedtomakenochangesfromtheteamthatoverturneda22-pointdeficitlastweekathomeagainsttheRoostobookaplaceinthegrandfinal。

AllthreeemergenciesScottLycett,ScottSelwoodandPatrickMcGinnity–travelledwiththeEaglestoMelbournebutwithnoplayersunderinjurycloudsitisunluckythetriowillgetalatereprieve。

Mostpossessionmarkets–whotobetonandwhy

Duetotheoverwhelmingpopularityofthemostpossessionsmarket,CrownbethavemadetheunprecedentedmoveofaddingathirdgroupforGrandFinalday。

Thismeanspunterswantingtofindaballmagnetdiamondintheroughnowhaveathirdgrouptogetexcitedabout。

Let’stakealookatthecontendersineachgroupandpickoutsomewinners。

GroupA

SamMitchell$3。

25

MatthewPriddis$3。

75

JordanLewis$5。

50

AndrewGaff$6。

50

LukeHodge$9。

00

ChrisMasten$11。

00

LukeShuey$11。

00

GrantBirchall$21。

00

GroupAverdict:

Afterreturningfromaquadinjurylastweek,MattPriddiswasstillabletohaveanimpactfortheEaglesonhiswaytogathering26-disposalsagainsttheKangaroos;thesecondhighesttallyinthepreliminaryfinal。

HismainrivalinthegroupisSamMitchell,butwithalltheexposuretheprolificHawkhasdrawnthisweek,wethinkheissuretobelockeddownontoensurehisoutputislimited。

The2014BrownlowmedallistPriddisgathersthemajorityofhisdisposalsintight,whichmakeshimahardmantoquell。

ThereisalsothestronglikelihoodthatteammatesLukeShueyandAndrewGaffattractthemostoppositionattention,meaningPriddismayevengetsomecheappossessionsaroundthegroundtoo。

MattPriddisat$3。

75isthefavouredgroupAmostpossessionsbet。

GroupB

IsaacSmith$4。

50

LiamShiels$5。

00

MatthewRosa$6。

00

SharrodWellingham$6。

00

MarkHutchings$7。

00

DominicSheed$7。

50

BradleyHill$8。

00

ShaunBurgoyne$10。

00

GroupBverdict:

ThemarketreflectsthelackofastandoutpossessionaccumulatoringroupB,withtheshortestpricedplayeratthe$4。

50quote。

HawkIsaacSmithisthefavouritetoamassthemosttouches,butwithlingeringdoubtsoverhiskneewhichheinjuredinthefinalroundofthehomeandawayseason,itmaybeprudenttolookelsewhere。

HawthornspeedsterBradHillwasprolificlastweek,gathering25disposals–thethirdhighestforhisteam–andwillhaveampleopportunitytoreplicatethosenumbersonSaturday。

ExpectHilltolineuponthewing,andwithhisspeedandevasiveness,theEagleswillstruggletofindasuitablematchup。

BradleyHillat$8。

00isthefavouredgroupBmostpossessionsbet。

GroupC

JoshGibson$4。

75

MatthewSuckling$5。

00

JarrydRoughead$5。

00

MarkLecras$6。

50

CyrilRioli$6。

50

ElliotYeo$7。

00

ShannonHurn$9。

00

BradleySheppard$10。

00

GroupCverdict:

Itisanotherwideopenbettingaffairinthefinalgroup,withHawthorndefenderJoshGibsonthefavouriteat$4。

75–butwithaplethoraofattackingEagleoptions,itisunlikelytheAll-Australiandefenderwillbeabletoplayafree-wheelngtypeofgame。

FortheHawks,theinclusionofJackGunstonandtheretentionofRyanSchoenmakersmeansformerColemanmedallistJarrydRougheadwillbelefttoroamthegroundandprovideanotherdimensiontoHawthorn’sforwardthrusts。

Rougheadhasproveninthepasthecanplaythroughthemiddleoftheground,withninegamesthroughoutthe2015seasonwith20ormoredisposals,includingtwo30touchtallies。

ThebigRoughisaprovenballwinnerifAlistairClarksonfreeshimuptoplaythatrole。

ExpectthattohappenwithGunstonandSchoenmakerslikelytoplaymuchclosertogoal。

JarrydRougheadat$5。

00isthefavouredgroupCmostpossessionsbet。

Matchoutcome–whowillwinandwhy?

Itistheteamthateveryoneexpectedtobehereversustheyoungupstartsthatfewpredictedtoevenmakethefinals–sohowwilltheGrandFinalbetweentheHawksandtheEaglesplayout?

TheEagleswilltakegreatconfidenceovertheirwinthreeweeksagooverthereigningpremiers,andwillhavethebenefitoftheweek’srestinbetweenthequalifyingandpreliminaryfinalsovertheirfoes。

WithhottemperaturesexpectedonGrandFinalday,fatiguemaybecomeanissuetoo。

TheEaglesareusedtoscorchingheatallyearroundintheWestandmayhandletheconditionsbetterthantheHawks,whohavetravelledtwoofthepastthreeweekstoPerth。

TheHawkshaveexperienceontheirside,havingplayedinthepreviousthreeGrandFinals。

Hawthornhasbeenthereanddonethatonthebigstageandknowexactlywhatittakestogetthejobdone。

ThemainproblemfortheHawksisshuttingdowndominantEagleforwardJoshKennedy。

The2015Colemanmedallisthaskickedanimposing17goalsinhislastfourgamesagainsttheHawksandloomsasthedecisivefactorintheEagles’premiershipaspirations。

Itpromisestobeanenthrallingcontestworthyoftheshowpiecematchofthe2015season。

ThetravellingEagleswillbenefitgreatlyfromtheirhomefinalsstintleadingintoSaturday’scontest,withtheHawksgruellingschedulelikelytotakeitstollonthereigningpremierslateinthematch。

TheEagleswillneedtoremainintouchbythestartofthefourthquarter;iftheyareabletodosothelikelihoodthattheywillrunoverthetopoftheHawksisstronggiventhearduousconditionsexpectedSaturdaycompoundedbythetoughmonththatHawthornhasendured。

ExpecttheEaglestospoilthethree-peatpartyontheirwaytosecuringtheirfourtheverpremiership。

Tip:WestCoastEaglestowin$2。

40viaSportsbet

Exotic:MostgoalsJoshKennedy$4。


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